Dosage 10/Week 11

Brief Overview/Summary:

Today’s session was about Technology Assessment (TA) and forecasting. It was a topic that was out of the blue, being different from the topics we have been covering so far. Normally, we would cover the conventional aspects of technology and world change, like sustainable energy and ICT. However this topic focused more on what must we do to improve technology, rather than what should we do with the use of technology. In this session we talked about the importance of TA and forecasting, and we cover the many different strategies currently available. Forecasting and technology assessment complement each other, but forecasting is highly dependent on technology assessment. Without the assessment of current technology, foresight would be highly inaccurate or irrelevant.

 

Interesting Observation and Ideas:

For effective technology assessment and forecasting to occur there should be an open sharing of information. Sharing TA and forecasting information can be both good and bad. By sharing these information, it would attract alliances and partnerships which could give a boost to the implementation of these strategies, in turn it could expedite conclusions. On the other hand, you might be sharing your advantage with your competitors. This might invite sabotage and the stealing of ideas. However, this might not be all bad. Making information known to your competitors could introduce competition to develop a better product within a shorter time and sell it at a lower price. Hence, this would mainly benefit consumers and might later benefit the companies if the product is a successful innovation. Moreover, with the openness of information there will be more feedback and it will be from a wider range perspectives. Opinions that were never thought of before could arise which could help the company in building their forecasted idea and possibly in other areas such as deceasing cost.

 

Another point is the growing need or importance of TA and forecasting. Presently, technology is becoming more advanced and progressing at an ever increasing rate. The exponential growth of technologies means greater implications of technology and rapid competition. As technology changes so fast, companies have to keep up with it to survive and this causes constant swift changes. Consequently, there is an increasing need to understand the implications of technologies and prioritise decisions and resources (2 drivers of TA and forecasting). Thus, the need/importance of TA and forecasting framework is becoming greater. TA and forecasting helps a company stay ahead, attain growth and prevent problems.

 

As time goes by, the power of technology is being diffused around the world, western countries are no longer the monopoly of technology innovations. As knowledge and education becomes more widespread, other non-western societies are catching up with western nations in terms of knowledge and ability. Some nations are even competing with western societies to take the lead in innovations. In the presentation on terminator seed technology, it brings up the point that big companies use their advantage of technological information over the people, creating an unfair monopoly system. This can be applied on a bigger scale when you replace the companies with developed nations and the vulnerable people with less developed nations. These exploitations are occurring on a daily basis whether we like it or not. There are ways to solve these problems but I will not dwell into those for now.

 

How do we develop an accurate/precise prediction of the future? This is the million dollar question. If we are able to come up with a solution to this question, it would unleash a form of unprecedented power. In one of the readings it mentions that futurology is not an exact science as there is a high degree of uncertainty and large number of variables whose variability is also unpredictable. Therefore, futurists can best offer the direction of things to happen and not exact events or occurrences of the future. Should the ability to predict the future stay as it is? Will the implications of the ability to predict the exact future be too much for mankind to handle?

 

Key Takeaway Points:

Sahana mentioned that for foresights, it is more important to know when it will occur than what will happen. I beg to differ, I feel that both are equally important and they have to work hand in hand. If the time when it occurs changes, what might actually happen will most likely be altered as well. Same goes if what happens changes, the time when it happens might be shifted. Hence, it should be said that people should also focus their attention on when the foresights will happen instead of solely focusing on what will happen.

 

“The present is pregnant with the future” Voltaire. One of my peers mentioned that it meant that the seeds being planted now will be sewn in the future, implying that our efforts to make a better future will be enjoyed by future generations. However I see it in a way that it slightly different. In my perspective, our current actions and mindsets will shape the future. What we do now are implications of the future, be it good or bad. Whether you want to give birth to a bright future or a bleak future is up to us to decide. We, humans have to decide and act on it now.

 

Personal Rating:

8/10. A fresh perspective of things.